Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Croatia
  • Switzerland
  • Italy
  • US
  • United Kingdom
  • Sweden
  • Germany
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • China
  • Suriname
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Israel

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $33,959$ on 2020-10-24

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $429$ on 2020-10-24

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,745$ on 2020-10-24

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $103,653$ on 2020-10-24

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,081$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,990.7}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,990.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $45,772$ on 2020-10-24

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $504,509$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{290,699.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 57.5)}}\) (asimptote \(290,699.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $37,210$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,148.4}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 47.3)}}\) (asimptote \(35,148.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $203,182$ on 2020-10-24

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,575,177$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,482,769.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 153.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9,482,769.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $224,889$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{217,556.4}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 94.5)}}\) (asimptote \(217,556.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,943,632$ on 2020-10-24

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $857,043$ on 2020-10-24

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $44,835$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,367.5}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 46.2)}}\) (asimptote \(41,367.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $809,532$ on 2020-10-24

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $110,594$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{94,792.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 103.3)}}\) (asimptote \(94,792.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,933$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,795.7}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 52.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,795.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $104,661$ on 2020-10-24

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $434,798$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{434,300.4}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 142.9)}}\) (asimptote \(434,300.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10,035$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,199.9}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,199.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $108,639$ on 2020-10-24

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Suriname recovered 96%
Saudi Arabia recovered 87%
Israel recovered 78%
Senegal recovered 76%
Uzbekistan recovered 75%
El Salvador recovered 71%
Maldives recovered 67%
Bolivia recovered 60%
Venezuela recovered 60%
Colombia recovered 58%
Tajikistan recovered 57%
Burkina Faso recovered 46%
Dominican Republic recovered 45%
Trinidad and Tobago recovered 44%
India recovered 34%
Bangladesh recovered 32%
Montenegro recovered 16%
Cabo Verde recovered 13%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $91,128$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85,956.9}{1 + 10^{-0.082 (t - 15.6)}}\) (asimptote \(85,956.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,739$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,701.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 31.9)}}\) (asimptote \(4,701.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $415$ on 2020-10-24

Suriname⮸

Population $586,632$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,166$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,181.9}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 150.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,181.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $109$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.7}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 142.5)}}\) (asimptote \(117.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $41$ on 2020-10-24

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $344,552$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{336,892.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 106.0)}}\) (asimptote \(336,892.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,281$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,316.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 122.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,316.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,276$ on 2020-10-24

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $309,413$ on 2020-10-24

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{761,239.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 246.7)}}\) (asimptote \(761,239.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,372$ on 2020-10-24

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,835$ on 2020-10-24